Why do consulting firms mix projected and realized numbers?

Because the industry lacks a standard labeling convention, and projected numbers are available earlier and are usually larger. Without explicit labels, a pre-engagement estimate and a post-production measurement look identical in a case study.

How should operations leaders evaluate consulting ROI claims?

Ask three questions: Is the number projected, observed, or verified? What is the measurement methodology? Who confirmed it — the builders or an independent party? Clear answers to all three indicate a trustworthy figure.

The Difference Between “Projected” and “Realized” — and Why the Gap Matters More Than the Number

Q: What is the difference between projected and realized savings?

Projected savings come from a model built before or during an engagement — they are forecasts with embedded assumptions. Realized (or recorded) savings are measured after the change goes live, with the measurement methodology disclosed. The label determines how much weight the number should carry in decision-making.

The problem with “savings”

When a consulting firm tells you a project saved $2 million, what does that mean? It could mean a model predicted $2 million in savings before the project started. It could mean someone estimated $2 million after the project ended, based on assumptions about what would have happened without the change. Or it could mean $2 million less was spent in the measurement period compared to the baseline period, with the measurement methodology disclosed.

These are three completely different claims. The industry treats them as interchangeable. They are not.

Three labels that change everything

Projected means the number comes from a model built before or during the engagement. It is a forecast. It may be well-constructed, but it has not happened yet. Every projected figure carries the assumptions of the model.

Observed means the number was measured after the change went live, but the measurement has not been independently verified, or the attribution methodology is not fully disclosed. Most “case study” numbers in our industry are observed.

Verified means the number was measured after the change went live, the measurement methodology is disclosed, and someone other than the people who built the solution confirmed it. This is the hardest label to earn — and the only one that should drive strategic decisions.

Why we disclose the label

At Innorve, every number that appears on our site, in a case study, or in a client deliverable carries one of these three labels. We do this because:

1. It protects the client from making decisions on projected numbers as if they were verified. 2. It protects us from the credibility collapse that happens when a “savings” number turns out to be a pre-engagement estimate. 3. It creates a clear path from projected → observed → verified that both sides can track.

Contribution is not causation. We built the automation, but the operations team runs it. The recorded outcome belongs to the operation, not to us. We disclose our contribution and the basis — that is all we can honestly do.

What to ask your current consultants

Next time someone presents a savings figure, ask three questions: (1) Is this projected, observed, or verified? (2) What is the measurement methodology? (3) Who confirmed it — the people who built the solution, or someone independent?

If the answer to all three is clear and documented, you have a trustworthy number. If not, you have a marketing claim.